Tariffs on Logistics: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

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3 minute read

Author: Sophie Jiotis

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Tariffs aren't mere tools of foreign policy; they are so much more. Tariffs quake the supply chain, sending shock waves through every industry, every job, and every household. The logistics world sits at the crossroads of trade policy and supply chain health. The timing for tariff implementation is, thus, crucial to ensuring the health of logistical operations. 

On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs under Executive Order 14257, invoking IEEPA. This "Liberation Day" order imposed a 10% universal tariff starting April 5, with higher rates, up to 145% on Chinese goods, added shortly thereafter. Federal courts ruled IEEPA-based tariffs to be unconstitutional, but enforcement was permitted to continue through July 31, 2025, when debates are set to resume. 

These recent U.S. tariffs could redefine everything, from shipping routes to domestic warehouse demand. For better or for worse, these policy changes will surely rock the logistics world.  

Costs on the Border-

Tariffs, in effect, raise the price on imported goods. Climbing prices correlate with less demand, and in turn, fewer goods are moved through ports, rail, and trucks. This effect may induce irreparable damage to the logistics industry as carriers (especially LTL, FTL, or drayage) face lower volume or pressure to discount rates on account of low demand. 

Increases in tariffs mirror increases in customs handling complexity. This rise demands more labor-intensive processing and thus higher administrative costs. These new classifications in HTS coding may also delay clearance, slowing processes and operations. 

Brokers, 3PLs, and shippers face significantly more red tape with these new policies. This fact highlights the need for automation and technological advancements in the compliance space. 

Port Volumes-

Inbound container volume at the U.S.'s 10 largest ports fell 6.6% in May and further 7.9% in June, reversing gains from the early April inventory rush. U.S. ports have felt a disproportionate strain, as the North American Container Port Throughput Index dropped 8% month-on-month in May, while global volumes remain up 5% year-over-year. These declines are primarily attributed to the "Liberation Day" tariffs implemented by the Trump Administration. 

Importers have begun rerouting shipments to nations with reduced tariffs (e.g., Mexico, Vietnam) to save on costs. This rerouting has shifted port utilization trends

tremendously. Specifically, near-shoring to Mexico may shift freight lanes toward southern border logistics infrastructure, leaving inland routes struggling to adapt. This impacts rail and intermodal hubs most significantly, namely Atlanta and Chicago. 

These reduced import volumes lower terminal throughput on a national scale, leading to unprecedented layoffs and falling wages. 

Ground Transportation- 

ACT Research forecasts a freight recession extending into 2026, with a possible surge in quarter three from pre-tariff restocking. These effects reach every component of the logistics process: from shippers to brokers to 3PLs to carriers and, most significantly, to intermodal freight. 

The reduced import quantity, caused by tariffs, affects all intermodal freight movement. Intermodal volume may fluctuate depending on shifts in port usage and international sourcing patterns. Shippers reliant on drayage, dedicated trucking, and

long-haul services may experience sudden demand shifts. This shift is mirrored by brokers, who may face sudden and similar volatile demand, tighter margins, and direct operational pressures. 

Logistical Growth- 

It has become increasingly clear that American logistics firms bear the weight of tariffs meant to protect American industry. This fact, however, doesn't necessarily spell trouble for the sector. Companies hold the key opportunity to turn adversity into operational advantage. The Trump Administration's tariffs may force strategic reinvestment in domestic supply chains, opening opportunities for logistics firms. This is especially true for customs-intensive near-shoring lanes, such as on the Mexican-American border. 

Logistics firms are readily adopting asset redeployment, slow steaming, and operational automation, efficiently managing new trade flows and tariff-related uncertainty. A study by BCG Global found that nearly half of all surveyed logistics providers are actively restructuring their operations around near-shoring and digital automation strategies. These shifts are not only defensive, they're strategic. Such changes have bolstered operational agility, allowing for business growth despite the tumult. 

Tariff Revenue-

It is estimated that an additional $55 billion will be collected in just 2025 by "Liberation Day" tariffs. Extrapolated to the decade, the Trump Administration is projected to raise trillions in revenue, allowing reinvestment into infrastructure, manufacturing, and supply chain management. This investment may grow the national logistics sector, providing for more jobs and development. 

Domestic Manufacturing Potential- 

In light of recent tariffs, many companies have felt pressure to shift production closer to home (either to Mexico or the U.S.). An analyst at Bank of America expects these reshoring initiatives to benefit domestic logistics providers, manufacturers, and suppliers. These shifts may drive increased demand for domestic transportation and warehousing services. This rush of business may lead to increased investment in U.S. infrastructure, easing the strain on logistics firms. 

Many domestic sectors—steel, aluminum, semiconductors— may similarly benefit from this movement. As tariffs protect these industries, domestic manufacturing may see growth, translating into more internal freight flows and demand for local logistics infrastructure. Put simply, more domestic production equals more freight. 

The Current State-

The logistics industry is more volatile than ever before. This unease disproportionately affects smaller firms, which may struggle to quickly rebound and effectively scale. Large businesses, in comparison, have access to greater legal and financial resources. These resources, however, don't entirely negate the challenges rife in the sector. Unstable load demand, rising compliance overhead, and declining container volumes reach every inch of the industry: acting with agility has never been more necessary. 

Digitization and risk management are essential in navigating these mounting struggles. In a world of volatile tariffs and shifting regulations, TMS platforms must offer immediate access to reliable data and built-in compliance tools. Amous TMS rises to this demand with a real-time, cloud-based infrastructure designed for your every need. Its AI-powered optimization capacities are at the core of its value, helping businesses streamline operations and cut costs. Unstable times define the importance of TMS software, empowering cos

t-effective and efficient operations: no matter the sector, no matter the time.